India In Sight #92
Weekly updates on Indian private markets. Featuring 'The Retail Kaleidoscope' report by BCG and 'The Consumption Chartbook' by IONIC Wealth.
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Key reports in this edition:
Winning in Bharat & India: The Retail Kaleidoscope by BCG and RAI
The Consumption Chartbook by IONIC Wealth
The India Flipbook by Capitalmind
State of India's Digital Economy (SIDE) Report 2025 by ICRIER
Trump and Energy by Rystad Energy
Chemical sector report by B&K Securities
KEY DEALS
Equity
VA Tech Wabag, a water technology company, partnered with Norfund (Norway’s SWF) and other investors to invest c.$100 million and set up an investment platform focused on municipal water infrastructure. (March 21, 2025)
Stage, a regional OTT platform, raised c.$12.5 million in its series B funding round co-led by Goodwater Capital and Blume Ventures to expand content offerings into regional languages. (March 21, 2025)
Bain Capital acquired c.18% stake in Manappuram Finance, an NBFC, for c.$510 million. This transaction will trigger a mandatory open offer for the purchase of an additional 26% stake in the company. (March 20, 2025)
Alpha Wave Global, an alternate investment firm, acquired c.22% stake in I-Ven Realty, a JV of Oberoi Realty and its chairman, for c.$145 million. (March 20, 2025)
PayU, a payments and fintech business of Prosus, acquired 43.5% stake in Mindgate Solutions, a real-time payments tech company. (March 20, 2025)
Servify, a post-sales service firm, raised c.$8 million in its ongoing Series D funding round led by BEENEXT Capital and Singularity Fund at a valuation of c.$700 million. (March 20, 2025)
Navadhan, a fintech startup focused on rural India, raised c.$13 million in its series A funding round led by NabVentures (VC arm of NABARD) and Prime Ventures. (March 20, 2025)
Icertis, an enterprise contract management company, secured a commitment of c. $50 million in its series D funding round led by Meritech Capital Partners, PSP Growth and Cross Creek Advisors. (March 19, 2025)
Pilgrim, a D2C beauty brand, raised c.$24 million in a mix of primary of secondary funding from Vertex Ventures SEA, Sattva Family Office, Mirabilis, Vertex Growth Fund and Anicut Fund. (March 18, 2025)
Hero MotoCorp, a motorcycle and scooter manufacturer, to acquire c.33% stake in Euler Motors, a manufacturer of electric three wheelers, for c.$62 million. (March 20, 2025)
Arthvit 1809 Tech, a parent company of Rupicard and GoodScore, to raise c.$15-20 million in a fresh funding round led by Peak XV, Stellaris and other investors. The deal is yet to be completed. (March 17, 2025)
Nivara Home Finance, a home loan provider, raised c.$30 million in its series B round led by True North and Baring PE India. (March 17, 2025)
Credit
Shapoorji Pallonji is looking to raise c.$3.3 billion through issuance of bonds. The debt sale has secured commitments of over $4 billion from global funds like Farallon, Ares, Cerberus, Davidson Kempner, Varde and others. (March 21, 2025)
Indian Overseas Bank is looking to raise c.$1.2 billion through issuance of long-term infrastructure bonds. (March 19, 2025)
Canara Bank raised c.$470 million through issuance of tier-II bonds at a coupon rate of 7.5%. (March 18, 2025)
Otipy, a farm-to-fork company, raised $2 million in venture debt from Nuvama Asset Management, ahead of its $10 million equity round. (March 17, 2025)
KEY FUNDS AND FUNDRAISES
All in Capital, a venture capital firm, marked the first close of its second fund at c.$10 million. The fund has a target corpus of c.$24 million. (March 20, 2025)
MARKET INSIGHTS & RESEARCH
Reports
BCG’s report on ‘India’s retail market’ outlines 2x+ growth, reaching $2T+ by 2034, driven by rising income levels, expanding digital payments, and evolving consumer preferences. Organized retail is growing faster than the overall sector, with online penetration surging to 50%, though 58% of purchases still occur offline. Successful retailers are focusing on efficiency, premium offerings, and omnichannel strategies.
IONIC Wealth’s ‘The Consumption Chartbook’ highlights India's consumption sector (56% of GDP) is projected to double by 2034—outpacing US and China. Tax cuts are expected to boost consumption, adding 1% to GDP with Gen Z to drive $2T in annual spends by 2035. Discretionary categories like electronics, apparel, jewellery, and experiences are set to grow at 14–16% CAGR. 92% of India’s retail is still unorganized.
Capitalmind’s ‘The India Flipbook’ gives an overall macroeconomic overview - credit growth remains flat at ~11%, while unsecured loans have slowed below 10% for the first time since COVID. Despite a four-month market decline, India’s fiscal deficit was cut below 4.5%, and tax revenues remain robust, with capital expenditure focused on railways, roads, finance, and defence.
ICRIER’s ‘State of India's Digital Economy (SIDE) Report 2025’ evaluates India's digital transformation using the CHIPS framework—Connect, Harness, Innovate, Protect, Sustain. India’s digital economy was at c.$537B in FY22 (11.2% of GDP) and is projected to reach $1T by FY26. The report positions India among a select group of nations that measure the size of their digital economies using OECD-proposed methods.
B&K Securities’ update on ‘Chemical sector’ highlights that in Feb 2025, despite a 6% MoM drop in crude prices, chemical and petrochemical prices saw a notable increase. Acrylic acid prices surged by ~17% MoM, caustic soda by ~6.6%, and acetone by ~5.2%. Meanwhile, China’s pesticide production rose by 39% YoY in 2024, with soda ash up 19%. Freight rates dropped sharply benefiting margins.
Rystad Energy’s report on ‘Trump and Energy’ provides a comprehensive analysis of the early impact of the energy policies under the new administration with actions focused on deregulation and maximizing US oil and gas production. However, high tariffs on energy goods and global steel/aluminum imports have raised concerns of cost inflation, especially for low-carbon sectors.
Articles
India’s real estate market recorded an 88% surge in investments, reaching $3B in H2 2024 (among the highest in APAC), driven by by corporate expansion and booming e-commerce. Major investors like CPPIB, Blackstone, and CapitaLand are actively targeting office, logistics, retail, and hospitality assets. Read more.
RBI reports a surge in remittances, with advanced economies like US and UK now outpacing Gulf nations. White-collar Indian migrants are key drivers of remittance inflows, strengthening India’s financial stability. NRIs are increasingly investing back home, drawn by India’s robust economic growth. Read more.
With global uncertainty and equity market volatility, Indian fixed income/bonds look attractive as investors can lock in attractive yields ahead of potential RBI rate cuts, making fixed income a stable addition to portfolios. Read more.
India’s thriving startup ecosystem has transformed job seekers into job creators. India’s is influencing other nations to adopt its development model, with the country aiming to nurture 5,000 unicorns, up from 119 currently. Read more.
With its youthful, tech-savvy population, India is setting benchmarks in AI, space exploration, and biotech. Digital India, BharatNet and India AI Mission have expanded internet access, digital literacy and established a comprehensive AI ecosystem. Read more.
KPIs
Fitch Ratings’ Fy26 growth forecast remains at 6.5% as India’s limited dependence on external demand will likely insulate it from US trade policy shifts. The FY27 projection has been slightly raised to 6.3%.
India’s inflation eased from over 6% in Oct 2024 to 3.6% in Feb 2025, helping the economy navigate trade tensions and global uncertainty. Despite capital outflows, strong farm output and resilient consumption are expected to drive GDP growth of 6.7% in 2025–26.
India’s agricultural growth is expected to reach 20% over the next two years, stressing the need to make the sector more viable and employment-generating. With 65% of the rural population contributing just 12% to GDP, key initiatives like green highways, improved port connectivity, and lower logistics costs are key to boost economic efficiency.
Below is a quick snapshot of the services sector performance from the latest RBI bulletin March 2025.
WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE (w/c March 17, 2025)
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